Mnogi kad se suoce sa nekom novom stvari, ne kazu ne znam, vec to nije tako. Kako je? Onako kako smo i do sad znali. Moze li u takvim okolnostima da se dodje do cistih, ili, nazovimo ih, novih saznanja. (Radivoje Pesic)
Nase radove ne sme zapljuskivati bes sovinista koji ... u horu od sto hiljada ludaka traze 'veliko carstvo' ovoga ili onoga vladaoca od pre nekoliko stotina godina. Ti zahtevi ... nisu nista drugo do jedno ludo nazadnjastvo.
(Dragisa Lapcevic, Borba, 16.10.1911)
Problem sa cinjenicama je u tome sto ih ima tako mnogo. (Samuel McChord Crothers)
Eastern Europe: The Vicious Circle of Economic Pain and Political Jitters
Jelena Vukotic | Apr 23, 2009
There is plenty of evidence that the economic crisis that has swept Eastern Europe has already entered the political sphere. The Czech government lost a parliamentary no-confidence vote on March 24, just three days after Hungary's prime minister resigned. In February, the Latvian government collapsed under a barrage of violent protests. Riots also erupted in Bulgaria and Lithuania. As the economic crisis bites and unemployment rates soar, voters have been losing confidence in their governments’ ability to cope with the deepening economic downturn. What is more troubling is that this confluence of crises creates a vicious circle. Economic gloom fans social unrest and brings governments down. In turn, rising political risk unsettles already jittery investors and will certainly not help the recovery prospects in the region that is highly dependent on capital inflows.
Two caveats should be highlighted, however. First, the recent wave of popular unrest has not been isolated to Eastern Europe. Ireland, Iceland, France, the UK and Greece also experienced street protests. Yet, many Eastern European governments do seem more vulnerable as they have limited policy options to address the crisis and little or no room for fiscal stimulus due to budgetary or financing constraints. Hungary’s outgoing prime minister stepped down in March amid battles over spending cuts, while in the Baltic states and Romania, public discontent will keep brewing due to deeply unpopular austerity measures.
Second, the current political crisis does not have only economic causes. In the young and less consolidated democracies of Eastern Europe, politics has always been fractious and prone to high-profile corruption and fraud scandals. The recent Czech political turmoil had more to do with domestic wrangling than with the economic slowdown. In fact, the March 2009 no-confidence vote that ousted the Czech government was actually the fifth since the cabinet took office in January 2007. Moreover, the governing coalition was formed after a seven-month political deadlock sparked by inconclusive elections. The Hungarian prime minister Ferenc Gyurcsany, who recently resigned under the weight of economic crisis, is the same one who triggered violent protests in 2006 after famously admitting in a leaked tape that his government was “lying in the morning, in the evening and at night” in order to get re-elected. Yet, engaging in “business as usual” politics at a time of economic upheaval is particularly damaging. The severe economic downturn that has plagued the region calls for sound policies and strong governing coalitions and the region’s noisy politics is doing nothing to perk up market confidence in the region’s ability to weather the crisis.
Indeed, rising political risk is already having a direct, negative impact on the region’s economies in the form of credit rating downgrades, which increase debt servicing costs and could result in lower investment and higher FX volatility. Hungary had its credit rating cut in March to the lowest investment grade following the government’s collapse. In February, S&P downgraded Latvia’s sovereign credit rating to ‘junk’ on concerns that the collapse of the cabinet could delay budget cuts and hold up IMF funding. The new Latvian government did little to alleviate the concerns and the country missed a loan tranche of 200 million euros ($265 million) from the IMF in March that is part of the 7.5 billion euros rescue package. Unsurprisingly, Fitch cut the ratings for Latvia in April, but also reduced its rating on Estonia and Lithuania, citing spillover risks for the neighboring countries.
The series of recent credit rating downgrades in the region is in line with research findings pointing to links between investors’ sentiment and political instability. Looking at twelve Latin American countries from 1992 to 2005, Christoph Moser found that bond spreads exhibit a significant upward trend in the run-up to a cabinet change and flatten out on a higher level 40 days after the change, suggesting that uncertainty about the future course of economic policy increases refinancing costs for emerging markets.
Thus, political uncertainties in Eastern European countries could unsettle already jittery foreign investors and further damage these economies, which have been heavily dependent on foreign capital inflows for growth. Moreover, political turmoil could bring higher FX volatility, thereby influencing monetary policy. For example, the Czech currency fell sharply on news of political turmoil in March and consequently, the central bank decided to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%. Political uncertainty has also contributed to Hungary’s recent monetary policy decisions. The central bank kept the key interest rate on hold at 9.5% in March and April as concern over currency weakening outweighed the outlook for slowing inflation and growth.
As argued in one of the recent Lex columns, much of the political uncertainties that we see now in Eastern Europe follow the well-known pattern seen in Latin America in 1980s and east Asia in the 1990s. The story roughly goes like this: “Country hits crisis. International Monetary Fund arrives. Government, under IMF tutelage, collapses amid riots. New government forms but also struggles over IMF terms.” Indeed, both the Hungarian and Latvian interim governments are coming under increasing pressure over unpopular austerity measures and will probably not see through their full terms. Romania, another recent IMF client, is also at risk of early elections, as the unstable governing coalition there struggles to implement severe cuts in public spending and wages. Two other political hotspots are Estonia and Lithuania. Both countries look set to experience a double-digit economic contraction exacerbated by the fiscal tightening, which is in the pipeline.
In the end, the political forces most likely to benefit from public disaffection and the economic downturn are those running on populist platforms, which could further disrupt efforts to battle the effects of the economic crisis and delay recovery. This dynamic is already evident in Bulgaria, which is holding regular parliamentary elections in June. As the ruling Socialist party continues to trail behind its political rivals, the government has started to pour money into infrastructure projects and social programs, even though the IMF had urged the cabinet to scale back spending to ensure financial stability.
Quote:Not on top of the bottoming puzzle, guru sees dark 'second phase'
Christopher Webb
April 26, 2009
KERR Neilson, the man who looks after $14 billion of other people's money, says he doesn't know whether markets have bottomed.
In Platinum Capital's latest report to investors, he said it was tempting to believe that the "authorities" were getting on top of the problems and that the period might be reflected on in the future as some sort of transient mishap.
Neilson referred to what he called "the excitement of the potential of equities", which he said was still fresh in investors' minds.
The danger was that emotion could be placed above logic.
The best protection from that, he said, was to keep a checklist of the root causes of the global economic contraction.
First, there were the imbalances between the large consuming nations and the "savings nations" that must still be addressed.
[Zapad trosi - Kina stedi - op. istorija]
Secondly, Western banks were deficient in equity and "we are yet to suffer the bad debts from the second phase of this economic contraction".
The third point on his checklist concerned earnings which, he noted, were at peak levels worldwide in 2007-08 and way above trend. And, lastly, there was simply too much debt in the system.
"The measures now being taken could worsen the position long-term by dislocating the benefits of market pricing and are already causing distortions.
"Here at Platinum we are beginning to favour companies that will be reasonably well placed if ultimately inflation threatens (and) we are also tending to overweight our investment in those countries which have low government debt and high savings which we believe have greater scope for growth than those labouring under the burden of rising national debt.
"We can now buy many companies at or below their book value, which is most rare. It implies that there is no intrinsic value in the work of decades of putting together the whole neural system that comprises a successful company.
"Longer term, we think markets will continue to be volatile so that flexibility of mind and constant watchfulness will be at a premium," he said.
Platinum Capital returned minus 2.5 per cent for the March quarter, minus 1.1 per cent for the half year and minus 4.1 per cent for the year. Those figures compared with all country-world index numbers of minus 10.4 per cent, minus 21.3 per cent and minus 25.2 per cent respectively.
Vide, cisto onako da pomenem da je moje pranje prozora u prvoj cetvrtini ove godine donelo profit od 23% za pola godine 20%, a za celu godinu 11%.
Pa ti sada vidi kakvi su strucnjaci oni ekonomisti koji rade u vrhu pojedinih "managed funds" ili za vlade pojedinih drzava.
Despite the recovery in commodity prices, there are few green shoots in Russia where the EBRD suggested that the economy might contract by -7% in 2009. Although Russia’s PMI has now risen to 43 in April, the contraction is already longer and more severe than during the 1998 financial crisis.
Moreover, the unemployment rate neared 10% already in March, and wage arrears suggest further job losses are to come, despite government support. The increase in commodity prices may alleviate the worst of the revenue deterioration but even at an oil price of $50-55 a barrel, Russia would draw heavily on its past savings (as it has already been doing) and in any case hydrocarbon output is falling. Meanwhile despite some reductions in external debts in H2 2008, vulnerabilities in the financial sector will weigh on growth even once the recovery at last begins.
Registered Member
Posts: 1414
(30/5/09 21:39) Reply
Re: Velika Depresija americke ekonomije
Русија спасава Опел
„Ту шансу је ’Опел’ заслужио јер за насталу ситуацију нису криви радници немачког концерна већ промашаји менаџмента ’Џенерал моторса’,” досадашњег власника фабрике, каже Ангела Меркел
Од нашег дописника
Москва, 30. маја - Нови власник немачког „Опела” је конзорцијум који чине руски „Сбербанк” (35 одсто) и канадско-аустријска компанија „Магна интернационал” (20 процената). У власништву „Џенерал моторса” остаје 35 одсто, док радницима „Опела” припада десет процената акција посрнулог концерна.„Захваљујући усаглашеној концепцији спасавања, ’Опел’ сада има перспективу”, рекла је немачки канцелар Ангела Меркел након потписивања споразума. Она је истакла да је у преговорима о спасавању аутомобилског концерна учествовао и амерички председник Обама и изразила задовољство што се 25 хиљада радника неће наћи на улици.
„Ту шансу је ’Опел’ заслужио јер за насталу ситуацију нису криви радници немачког концерна већ промашаји менаџмента ’Џенерал моторса’, досадашњег власника фабрике.”
Немачка влада одлучила је да нове власнике „Опела” помогне кредитом од 1,5 милијарди евра, као и државним гаранцијама за кредит у вредности од 4,5 милијарди евра, па је, иако формалну одлуку о продаји доноси „Џенерал моторс”, њен избор партнера био кључни.
Нови власник обећао је да ће инвестирати више од петсто милиона долара. С обзиром да је „Сбербанк” државна банка, јасно је да је куповина „Опела” заправо инвестиција руске владе. „Сбербанк” ће, кад се компанија стабилизује, највероватније, продати своје акције.
Група „ГАЗ” Олега Дерипаске биће индустријски партнер немачког аутомобилског концерна. Захваљујући високом степену аутоматизације и квалификацији персонала ГАЗ-а који је обучаван у предузећима „Магне” (занимљиво је да је Дерипаска власник извесног броја акција те канадске компаније), могућа је организација заједничке производње, изјављују представници руског аутомобилског гиганта.
Група „ГАЗ” може да обезбеди производњу око 180 хиљада аутомобила новог конзорцијума.
Герман Греф, директор „Сбербанка” изјавио је да је Русија заинтересована да куповином таквих актива реструктуира аутомобилску индустрију. Према његовим речима, то је изузетна шанса за Русију – да по невероватно ниској цени добије једну од најнапреднијих технологија европског произвођача. „Сбербанк” је у овом случају наступио као инвеститор, тј страна која је дала кредит неопходан за куповину. „Опел” је одувек један од најпродаванијих аутомобила у Европи и данас у Немачкој има четири производна комплекса, у којима ради 25 хиљада радника. Поред тога, власник је и фабрика у Великој Британији, Белгији и Пољској. Захваљујући новом власнику, сав тај потенцијал биће сачуван, а можда и повећан.
У Русији су веома задовољни овом куповином, не само зато што Руска Федерација тако постаје један од највећих светских играча на пољу аутомобилске индустрије, већ и зато што је то први пут да на Западу прихвате руске инвестиције. До сада су сви покушаји руских бизнисмена да постану власници значајнијег пакета акција већих светских компанија спречавани било тако што су налажени формални разлози који онемогућавају куповину, било отвореним изјавама да руски капитал није пожељан.
Љубинка Милинчић
[објављено: 31/05/2009]
------
"The devil can cite Scripture for his purpose." / Shakespeare
Quote:But Chancellor Angela Merkel's decision to support a Kremlin-backed rescue with German taxpayers' money may return to haunt her and could fail to prevent Opel eventually crashing and burning.
"All this seems to rest on a very fragile base. Let's say there is a 60 or 70 per cent chance that it won't work," Juergen Pieper, a car industry analyst at Metzler Bank, said.
Re: Velika Depresija americke ekonomije
Amerika spasava GM!
Quote:
The new GM that emerges sometime in the future will be leaner - unsaddled from much of its debt and labour cost disadvantages that contributed to tens of billions of dollars of losses. It will also be almost three-quarters owned by US taxpayers.
Re: Velika Depresija americke ekonomije
Zanima me sta sada misli onaj iskompleksirani nostalgicar?
Quote:
PaperlinX trading halt ahead of sale announcement
June 1, 2009 - 9:30AM
Shares in paper maker PaperlinX have entered a trading halt as the company prepares to make an announcement about the sale of its Australian Paper unit.
PaperlinX requested the trading halt today "pending an announcement in respect of the sale of Australian Paper".
PaperlinX has been working towards selling its Australian Paper unit to Japanese company Nippon Paper Group, as part of a major program transforming it from a local paper manufacturer to a global paper merchant.
At its half yearly results announcement in February, PaperlinX impaired the carrying value of Australian Paper by $567.5 million.
The sale was presented as a milestone in the company's transformation, and a key to its efforts to reorganise its debt.
The trading halt will remain in place until Wednesday, June 3, or until the announcement is made.
Quote:
Internet free ride soon over
Gordon Farrer
June 13, 2009
WITHIN five years internet users will have to pay to access content now free, according to Barry Diller, chief executive of InterActiveCorp in the United States, which runs about 30 websites and turns over $US1.5 billion ($A1.8 billion) each year.
"I absolutely believe the internet is passing from its free days into a paid system," he told the Advertising 2.0 conference in New York this week.
Mr Diller said the paid model would include subscriptions, one-time purchases for access to sites and micro-payments.
But not all agree. "That's quite a prediction," said Neil Ackland, managing director of the Sound Alliance Group, the largest independent online publisher in Australia. Its niche music and lifestyle sites — such as FasterLouder, SameSame and Mess+Noise — attract 500,000 unique hits a month.
"We've been doing that for more than 10 years and manage to make a profit out of advertising as our model — why would we want to change that?"
Mr Ackland said people would be willing to pay for some content "but I think people are already paying for that content: finance, investment, dating, real estate information, high-end information. People already recognise that value.
"But a news story that is on 600 websites around the world simultaneously doesn't have any value to the end user. It doesn't have any exclusive value they can't get elsewhere."
Andrew Sims, general manager of marketing and products for Melbourne-based internet service provider iPrimus agrees: "If one of the big newspapers today wanted to make everyone pay for content, people would go elsewhere … there'll be another two, three maybe five sites out there that'll provide the services (free)."
The demise of respect for copyright on the internet plays a role. Canny consumers can find their way around information toll booths; once someone has access to content they can put it out there for others to access.
"We see that with all types of things," said Mr Sims, "(such as) illegal downloads of video content and music."
Companies must learn to survive on revenue via advertising on their sites, he said.
"Advertising companies are moving away from traditional media — print and TV — and putting their money online because they feel they get better bang for their buck. As that trend continues you'll see more and more people spending online, which will certainly help websites whose ultimate goal is to deliver quality content."
The shift in how young people, especially, found information was also a factor, said Mr Ackland.
"A lot of people now already get a lot of their news and information from forums and blogs — when they happen to stumble across news that's been posted in forum threads …
"Twenty years ago there was a limited number of places where information could get published and distributed. Now there's an infinite number … The idea of putting information behind a walled garden? I just don't see it happening."
Kao sto sam vec rekao, koncept "copyright-a" u doba interneta MORA da se menja, tj. promeni, tj. zaboravi, tj. izbrise, tj. nestane.
Manji broj ljudi je to shvatio ali kako stvari stoje "uspavani" se bude. Polako, polako.
Kako stvari stoje, a evo danas je vec treci dan zaredom kako DOW polece u stratosferu, izgleda da su Ameri veoma brzo preboleli ono sto su izgubili pa sada uzurbano zele da nadoknade izgubljeno.
Quote:More than half of adult Americans have been hard hit by the recession and two-thirds have turned to the Web for help in coping and understanding the downturn, a survey published Wednesday found.
The Pew Internet and American Life Project said that 52 percent of American adults have suffered a major economic loss during the recession including 35 percent who have seen their investments lose more than half their value.
Twenty-seven percent who are employed full- or part time have had their pay cut, their hours reduced or lost benefits, the survey found, while 20 percent of homeowners have seen the value of their home reduced by at least half.
Fourteen percent have been laid off or lost their jobs.
The survey found that 69 percent of all American adults have gone online looking for help with personal economic issues and to gather information about the recession.
Email This To a Friend
Topic Commands
Click to receive email notification of replies 
Click to stop receiving email notification of replies